FUNTI's daily electric motorcycle market brief for October 18, 2026: raw material prices, overseas market regulation and China export data, compiled from public sources for importers, distributors and fleet operators.
FUNTI MARKET INTELLIGENCE · October 18, 2026
① Today's Highlights
- Canton Fair Phase 1 enters its final day: the 140th Canton Fair Phase 1 runs October 15–19 and closes tomorrow (October 19); today is the last full working day to turn on-site interest into deposits or contracts (CCTV News / Canton Fair, 2026-10-15) (reported on October 15 as the opening; new development: the final day before closing). Bottom line: if pricing is not locked today, only email follow-up remains after tomorrow's teardown; sample configuration, FOB price and lead time must be confirmed face to face today.
- Macro data first tomorrow: China will release Q3 GDP and September industrial, consumption and investment data on October 19, the first steering signal for copper prices and FX this week (SMM, 2026-10-16). Bottom line: there is no need to front-run copper purchases before the data; this search found no new two-wheeler tariff or access documents dated October 18, so do not wait for policy today — close out the Canton Fair floor and quotations first.
② Raw Materials & FX
- Lithium carbonate: October 18 is a Sunday, and domestic futures and spot markets are closed; no new quotes were obtained for today, with prices holding at the October 16 close. Fundamentals produced one signal that runs against the "continued sharp decline" narrative: Mysteel data show October domestic lithium carbonate output rose 1.1% month on month to 115,900 tonnes, while end-September all-caliber inventory had fallen to 113,600 tonnes, a cumulative decline of about 44%, with trader inventory down to 47,000 tonnes; inventory days may fall to around 15 days in November, low stocks would amplify price elasticity, and downstream buyers are advised to stock up early (Mysteel, 2026-10-13). Bottom line: the downward cost trend is intact, but "low inventory plus higher Q4 schedules" is narrowing the downside; do not bet on a deep fall, and lock 1/4 to 1/3 of quarterly volume in batches.
- Cost quantification: based on the latest recalculation (`reports/电池成本重算_20261013.md`, battery-grade spot at RMB 115,400/t on October 12) and spot at RMB 101,000/t on October 16, the current cell cost of our 72V series is approximately: 72V27Ah at RMB 1,432–1,437/pack, 72V42Ah at RMB 1,887–1,896/pack, and 72V67Ah at RMB 2,363–2,377/pack (cells only; BMS, housing, wiring harness and other items unchanged). For every further RMB 10,000/t move in lithium carbonate, the impact is about ±RMB 12–16 for 27Ah, ±RMB 18–24 for 42Ah, and ±RMB 29–39 for 67Ah (internal recalculation / industry pass-through coefficient of 0.006–0.008 RMB/Wh, 2026-10-18). Bottom line: reset the floor price of the battery line item on these absolute costs and keep a "market-linked" or staged price-lock clause in contracts.
- Copper: on October 16, 1# electrolytic copper spot averaged RMB 110,680/t, up RMB 155, with a spot premium of RMB 825/t over SHFE copper 2611; on inventories, SHFE copper stocks rose 15,218 tonnes this week, domestic social inventory rebounded to 113,100 tonnes, up 12,100 tonnes week on week, and LME stocks fell to 225,000 tonnes; SMM expects SHFE copper to trade at RMB 108,000–110,000/t next week (Shanghai Metals Market / SMM, 2026-10-16). Cost impact: copper accounts for 50%–60% of main wiring harness cost and 20%–30% of enamelled wire in motors; every 1% rise in copper raises harness cost by about 0.5%–0.6%, typically a single-digit RMB amount per vehicle. The current combination of a high spot premium and domestic restocking indicates tight near-term supply while forward supply recovers. Action: lock copper volume in batches without fixing the price, and wait for the October 19 macro data before the next purchase.
- Aluminium: on October 16, A00 aluminium ingot averaged RMB 23,460/t in East China, up RMB 200; SHFE aluminium stocks fell 29,401 tonnes this week, a clear drawdown (Shanghai Metals Market / FX678, 2026-10-16). Cost impact: aluminium accounts for 10%–15% of the cost of frames, wheels and aluminium housings; a daily rise of about 0.9% lifts aluminium part cost by roughly 0.1%, about RMB 1 per vehicle; the direction is mildly negative but the magnitude is negligible. Action: negotiate aluminium parts at current prices; no need to lock in a hurry. No new quotes were available for steel, electrical steel, NdFeB or electrolyte materials, so last week's basis applies; electrical steel accounts for 25%–35% of motor cost and NdFeB for more than 30% of permanent-magnet motor cost, so long-term motor contracts must retain price adjustment clauses.
- FX: October 18 is a Sunday, with no new midpoint or bank quotes. The latest official reference is the October 16 RMB/USD midpoint of 6.7220; against 6.7330 on October 9, the RMB strengthened by 110 pips week on week (China Foreign Exchange Trade System, 2026-10-09 to 10-16). Cost impact: a stronger RMB reduces the RMB value of USD-denominated quotes; at 110 pips, every USD 100,000 order yields about RMB 1,100 less. Action: keep USD order calculations within a 6.70–6.73 range and state on all customer quotes that the rate is "subject to confirmation at the prevailing midpoint".
③ Overseas Markets
- Vietnam's electrification is accelerating rather than growing linearly: in January–July 2026, Vietnam's electric motorcycle sales rose 97.2% year on year, five times the growth of the overall motorcycle market, with the electrification rate reaching 27.7%; market leader VinFast delivered 429,200 units in the first half of 2026, already exceeding full-year 2025, and is expected to exceed 1 million units for the full year, up more than 146%, while expanding into Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and India; on the battery side, 博力威 (Boliyway) supplies nearly 50% of VinFast's battery volume (Boliyway / Sohu, 2026-10-14). Bottom line: Vietnam has moved from a policy-driven pilot market to a scale-driven replacement market; pricing for Vietnam can no longer follow the markup logic of small trial orders.
- Brazil's CKD duty-free window is running out: Brazil's foreign trade council decided to restore a zero-tariff import quota for CKD and semi-knocked-down assembly from July 1, 2026, for six months and a total of USD 463 million; the quota expires on December 31, 2026. Above the quota, SKD is taxed at 35%, while CKD remains at 14% until January 1, 2027 and then rises to 35%; CBU vehicles have no quota and face 35% directly (China News Service / CAMEX, 2026-06-24) (reported on October 8 that the quota had taken effect; new development: the expiry date and the tax-rate step-up are now confirmed). Bottom line: treat "customs clearance before December 31" as a hard deadline for Brazil; from January next year, CKD cost will jump by 21 percentage points in one step.
- Only four days remain before the Philippines trade show: the 14th Philippine Electric Vehicle Show (EVAP 2026) will be held on October 22–24 at SMX Convention Center, Manila; the Philippine EV market was worth about USD 3.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 20.57 billion by 2034, a compound annual growth rate of 19.73%; the EVIDA law targets about 2.5 million EVs by 2040 (EVAP / exhibition materials, 2026-03-19) (reported on October 16 as an upcoming event; new development: only 4 days to the opening). Bottom line: sample bikes, certification packs and English quotations must be finalised by October 20; last-minute document work directly eats into first-day meeting time.
FUNTI · Taizhou Fangxiang Technology Co., Ltd.
Daily electric motorcycle market brief for importers, distributors and fleet operators. Figures are compiled from public market sources and industry associations; verify before commercial use.
