FUNTI's daily electric motorcycle market brief for September 29, 2026: raw material prices, overseas market regulation and China export data, compiled from public sources for importers, distributors and fleet operators.
FUNTI MARKET INTELLIGENCE · September 29, 2026
① Today's Highlights
- US-China talks delivered concrete results, but two-wheelers got no tariff relief: on September 28 China's Ministry of Commerce published the consensus on the China-US Trade Council and the "USD 30 billion for USD 30 billion" reciprocal tariff framework — each side will cut tariffs on about USD 30 billion of the other's imports, and more than 90% of the products will be exempted from all mutually imposed tariffs and enjoy MFN rates. The US list is concentrated in toys, home appliances, baby products, kitchen and bathroom goods and holiday gifts; China's list covers agricultural products, personal care, medical devices and coal — motorcycles and complete electric two-wheelers are on neither list. Key takeaway: the overall tariff environment with the US is easing at the margin, but tariffs on Chinese e-motorcycle CBU exports to the US are unchanged (the US still applies 102.5% to Chinese EVs), so do not cut prices for US customers just because of the words "tariff cut" (MOFCOM / Caixin, 2026-09-28) (reported on September 18 as under negotiation; this is new progress).
- The policy predictability window for US business has been extended: MOFCOM's Department of American and Oceanian Affairs confirmed that both sides agreed to extend the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement to January 10, 2027 and to keep exploring the matter (the original suspension expiry was November 10, 2026); an agriculture working group will be set up under the Trade Council with its first meeting planned before end-2026, and an AI dialogue mechanism has been established. Key takeaway: the hardest deadline, November 10, has been pushed back by two months, so delivery schedules and tariff validity on US orders in hand can be re-planned around the longer window (MOFCOM / Caixin, 2026-09-28) (reported on September 21 as the expiry countdown; this is new progress).
- Policy scan result for September 29: no new official Chinese export-tariff or destination-market access documents dated September 29 were found. Post-holiday policy information is still recovering; items already disclosed — Vietnam's fuel tax measures (effective September 30), Brazil's CKD quota, the Philippine motorcycle tariff structure and Indonesia's Molinas rules — are not repeated here (public information, 2026-09-29).
② Raw Materials & FX
- FX: Bank of China's 6:40 quote for September 29 shows USD cash-buying rate 670.02, cash-selling rate 672.84 and BOC conversion rate 673.99 (RMB per 100 USD) — the reference basis for export settlement. Key takeaway: the RMB remains on the strong side; stress-test USD-order settlement calculations at 6.70 or below. The September 29 central parity is published at 9:15 and had not yet been set when this report was produced (Bank of China, 2026-09-29).
- Freight: on September 28 the main container freight index (Europe route) futures contract closed at 2,937.5 points, up 6.92% on the day, approaching 3,000; but on the spot side the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (Europe route) was 2,441.81, down 6.5% from the previous reading. Carriers have begun issuing second-half-October rate-increase notices, with Maersk raising FEU rates to USD 4,000 from October 19. Key takeaway: futures are front-running the post-holiday increase while spot is still weak; mid-to-late October carries the biggest upside risk, so book space and rates early for post-holiday shipments (Shanghai Shipping Exchange / Xinhua Finance / Eastmoney, 2026-09-28).
- Energy costs are rebounding: on September 28 SHFE crude closed at RMB 739.3/bbl, up about 2%, fuel oil rose nearly 5% to RMB 4,461/t, overnight Brent topped USD 99/bbl, and the September 29 overnight brief showed oil slightly firmer. Key takeaway: higher energy prices lift both bunker surcharges and the running cost of fuel motorcycles in Southeast Asia — the former is a cost headwind, the latter a tailwind for fuel-to-electric switching; keep the two separate when quoting (Xinhua Finance / NBD / Cailianshe, 2026-09-28 to 09-29).
- Metals and lithium data pending today: the September 28 domestic non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate closes were listed in yesterday's Evening Report and are not repeated here; domestic commodity futures open at 9:00 on September 29 and had not yet formed when this report was produced (about 8:20). Key takeaway: the first hour of today's session sets this week's new negotiating baseline; avoid rushing to lock prices this morning (public market information, 2026-09-29).
③ Overseas Markets
- Thai pump prices remain high and the fuel-to-electric math still works: Thailand's retail prices for September 29 show gasoline at THB 48.93/litre, gasohol (E20) at THB 34.94/litre and diesel at THB 41.44/litre (PTT basis, excluding local maintenance tax). Key takeaway: Thailand is one of the few Southeast Asian markets where the subsidy reaches the consumer directly (EV3.5 pays THB 10,000 per e-motorcycle), so high fuel prices plus subsidy make it the best moment for local dealers to pitch e-motorcycles (Thai Chinese News / PTT, 2026-09-29).
- The Philippines is a high-growth market starting from the consumer end: estimates put the Philippine EV market at about USD 3.4 billion in 2026, rising to about USD 20.57 billion by 2034, a 2026–2034 CAGR of 19%–20%; by volume, EV sales grew from under 1,000 units in 2022 to nearly 20,000 in 2025, and the government has extended zero tariffs on EVs and components to 2028, with weak local vehicle and battery manufacturing and heavy reliance on imports. Key takeaway: growth comes from two-wheelers, three-wheelers and light commercial vehicles alike; low entry barriers and a friendly trade policy make it a good pilot market for new models (EVAP / industry estimates, 2026-03).
FUNTI · Taizhou Fangxiang Technology Co., Ltd.
Daily electric motorcycle market brief for importers, distributors and fleet operators. Figures are compiled from public market sources and industry associations; verify before commercial use.
